[SMM Survey] The Number of Blast Furnace Overhauls Began to Decrease in January, and Pig Iron Production Is Expected to Continue a Slight Rebound in February

According to SMM's tracking survey data, 17 blast furnaces underwent maintenance in January, reducing daily pig iron production by 63,700 mt. The maintenance was mainly concentrated in north China. Meanwhile, 24 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing daily pig iron production by 95,000 mt. Apart from north China, a significant number of blast furnaces resuming production were located in east China. The impact from blast furnace maintenance in January decreased significantly MoM compared to December. SMM data shows that blast furnace maintenance in January resulted in a net reduction of 8.01 million mt of pig iron production, an increase of 60,000 mt compared to December. The average daily pig iron production decreased by approximately 2,000 mt. According to SMM's tracking survey, 15 additional blast furnaces are expected to undergo maintenance in February, reducing daily pig iron production by 59,600 mt. Conversely, 19 blast furnaces are expected to resume production, increasing daily pig iron production by 69,500 mt. Based on current data, February blast furnace maintenance is expected to impact a total of 6.4842 million mt of pig iron, a decrease of 1.5271 million mt compared to January. Considering January had 31 working days and February has 28, the average daily pig iron production in February is expected to increase by approximately 26,900 mt. Although most steel mills are currently operating with marginal profits and finished steel inventories remain relatively low YoY, in-plant inventory pressure is relatively small. However, February is an off-season for the industry, and downstream demand is recovering slowly, which may suppress the pace of blast furnace resumption. Therefore, SMM expects the actual number of blast furnaces undergoing maintenance and resuming production in February to exceed current estimates, leaving limited room for pig iron production to increase MoM compared to January. SMM will continue to track the situation weekly.